Double U Blog

At the year’s end, the interwebs are full of all and sundry trying to predict what the next year will bring. So I joined the bandwagon and gazed into my own little crystal ball to see what the entire hubbub will be about. This is of course concerned with the tech world (with focus on Pakistan) and like any sensible speculator, I’m compelled to say that the future is unpredictable (seeing as it hasn’t happened yet); for that reason and more, most if not all attempts at trying to predict what will take place in the volatile age we live in may fall flat on their faces. I think, with a reasonable amount of sureness (and an equal amount of uncertainty) that things will happen in 2009, and here’s a jab at trying to foresee what some of those things will be.

Predictions number 1 through 6 are focused on the Pakistani tech world — if you have no interest in that you can skip to number 7.

1. Power outages will continue to hamper everyday life and commerce. This isn’t much of a prediction, yes; more like a grim acknowledgment of the harsh reality of living in a country that can’t produce enough electricity. Frequent load shedding and power failures will put Pakistanis at a severe disadvantage in the increasingly competitive world, and things won’t get better as summer comes around and people switch on their air conditioning.

2. Bandwidth prices in Pakistan will halve; or we’ll get double the speed for the same price. Bandwidth caps here are a 50-50 chance as ISPs outside Pakistan begin to introduce caps to the tone of Comcast’s 250GB limit, to which there will continue to be much tumult among consumers. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the reintroduction of barbaric bandwidth caps even though its been just a year since the major ISPs have gotten rid of them — WiMAX providers are the only ones left with caps here, which is another reason why prediction number 6 will come true. However, there is much competition among the ISPs here; we will either have no caps, or the providers will collude on a ‘common’ cap. The Pakistanis who understand and object to bandwidth caps will be a minority, as the majority either don’t understand or don’t care about this kind of stuff anyway (until they come up against it, that is). In any case, broadband usage will rise and prices will drop.

3. At least one telco will roll out a 3G network. Telenor VP Irfan Khan has already said the country is ripe for 3G, and seeing where mobile technology is headed and how tough competition is among the cell phone networks, a 3G launch could be the differentiator among them. Of course, we’d need phones capable of using 3G before this, but newer phones that have the appropriate chips built-in will become more common and the cell phone companies would also start handing out 3G cards for notebooks and desktop computers for internet on-the-move.

4. Introduction of more contract-based phones. This will be welcomed by some for the cheaper up-front cost of getting a new handset, but this will of course also bring with it locked phones (no big issue here) and strict contract enforcement that would put some people off. Zong has their “Re.1″ branded phone (which actually amounts to about Rs. 2000, but that’s not the point here) and most of the other networks including Mobilink and Ufone offer Blackberry phones with accompanying data plans. Of course, this and my 3G prediction pave the way for a much coveted touch-screen phone (hint, hint), but I don’t think we’ll get the iPhone in Pakistan this year, not officially. But one could always hope!

5. Android based phones will hit the shelves in force. After T-Mobile G1 launched in September last year, a slew of cell phone manufacturers, including Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson, announced their plans for making phones that run Google’s Android operating system. While the majority of these will be “smart phones,” it’s a safe bet to also expect some of the Android love to spill over to Pakistan.

6. WiMAX will stagnate in Pakistan. Unless Wateen and Mobilink Infinity can give consumers a compelling reason to adopt WiMAX (with its bandwidth caps) over the traditional DSL, cable or even WorldCALL’s EVDO (that has no caps), there will not be much growth with the technology in Pakistan. The WiMAX dream of constant coverage won’t come true any time soon – I can’t imagine many people lugging around their laptops out in public over here for fear of getting instantly mugged. Add the fact that there aren’t that many WiMAX capable devices in the market, and even though WiMAX promises faster speeds (which we haven’t seen so far, by the way), I don’t see a compelling reason for people to opt for it besides if they don’t have a phone line and can’t get cable in their area. And even then, WorldCALL’s EVDO seems like a better and more manageable idea. Looks like a FAIL so far.

7. A blogger or website owner will get arrested for their site’s content. Bloggers don’t get the same protection as regular journalists and I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone get arrested for what they wrote on their blog. Independent bloggers don’t have the same protection as traditional media of working under the umbrella of a corporation or business entity; while that can be a liberating factor for bloggers and makes them more prone to touch on sensitive issues, the same can be seen as a curse. Journalistic protection needs to be officially extended to include bloggers and independent online media; otherwise the threat of such an episode hanging over their heads will discourage these people. This prediction applies to Pakistan more than anywhere else.

8. Social networks will continue to rise in popularity for a variety of uses, as will citizen journalism and instant on-the-spot eyewitness news sources. As more and more people begin to use social networks like Facebook and Twitter, alternative uses of such platforms will emerge. We’ve already seen how Twitter can act as a source of immediate eyewitness accounts of events like natural disasters and terrorist attacks. Instant updates on the situation from people who are actually there are much more compelling than delayed, sometimes filtered news coming out of the big TV networks, and this preference will show as more and more people turn to social networks for news updates on not just their friends and family, but the world as well. Twitter is already being used as a PR tool by some businesses, and this will continue. People, especially in Pakistan who used to think of the internet as a hotbed of pornography and illegal activities will discover they were wrong…OK, maybe not entirely wrong…Anyway, these people (parents, grandparents and old people in general) will begin to use social networks to keep in touch with family, and more will want to learn to use the computer just for this purpose.

9. Continued popularity of netbooks will pave the way for Linux into the mainstream. This has already begun happening, so it’s not really a prediction, but this will continue and Linux will carve out a larger place in the mainstream. As distros mature and become easier to use, people will not hesitate as much in choosing to knock off the cost of a copy of Windows when buying a computer and getting Linux instead.

10. Cloud computing, software as a service and web apps continue to be popular. Access to broadband will definitely help with this, as people realize they don’t really need an office suit or financial management program installed on their computer. They could just use a hosted, web based application like Google Docs or Mint. Web apps will evolve as browsers and scripting languages mature and will continue to be popular. Other services like Google Apps, Microsoft Online Services, Salesforce and Zoho will gain popularity, but the debate over whether this is a good thing or not will rage on.

11. Windows 7 will be a success. That’s right, I’ve said it. I think Microsoft’s new OS will be greeted with skepticism and wariness, but that will soon wear off (not completely though) and Windows 7 will restore (at least) some of Microsoft’s credibility in the operating system market. Microsoft’s image and PC users’ confidence in the platform is what took the most beating with Vista, but Windows 7 will heal the wounds. Linux and the Mac will nibble away at Windows’ market share, but nothing too drastic will occur to displace it from the top.

12. Yahoo! will be chopped up and sold. Could be Microsoft, could be Google, could be who knows who, but Yahoo’s days as the company it now is are numbered and it will soon be sold off, more likely in parts. Flickr and Delicious are the most likely to go first if Yahoo! can’t find a way to get out of the rut it’s been in since they turned down Microsoft’s acquisition offer. Yahoo! Mail is very popular and they seem to be innovating with the new social aspects of if, but the question on many minds is will this restore confidence in the company?

13. At least one major security breach will occur that will shake everyone in their boots. This breach (if it ever occurs) will be a huge disaster when it comes to computer and network security breaches, not to mention a PR catastrophe. I don’t know what exactly will happen (but then I don’t know anything, I just pretend I do) or how; a very high-profile individual or government institution could get hacked and data leaked, or there could be a breach at a financial institution, or even a break-in of user account information at some company like Google or Microsoft. I don’t mean to bring evil upon anyone, be they a company or individual, but something major will happen as hackers get more sophisticated and bolder in their attempts and security experts have to run to catch up.

14. Steps will be taken to secure computers that are part of botnets. Most of the computers in a botnet are running a copy of Windows that hasn’t been patched with security updates and has no malware protection running. A significant chunk of these infected computers are in countries like China, India and Pakistan where many people run pirated Windows on which updates can’t be applied because they do not pass Microsoft’s Genuine Advantage validation. The growing menace of botnets will force Microsoft into action, and steps will be taken to somehow secure these computers. This could be done by either providing critical security updates regardless of WGA status. Microsoft’s free anti-malware app (set to release in summer 2009) will also help.

15. Concrete steps will be taken to ensure net neutrality. There will be much debate among experts, regulators and users alike but I think 2009 will bring significant strides made in the effort to ensure net neutrality exists and that all network content is treated equal. Valid arguments will be made on both sides, but in the end it will all either come down to drastic measures or it will be agreed upon by everyone. Barack Obama’s CTO (whoever that will be) will obviously have a significant role in this issue.

Well, that wraps it up for that. Of course, I’ll be sure to keep checking back on this list as the year progresses to see how I did, despite the possiblity that it will disappoint me. Leave a comment if you have a thought about the things I’ve predicted, or if you have a tech prediction of your own!